Trends in COVID-19 Risk-Adjusted Mortality Rates.

Early reports showed high mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Mortality rates have recently been lower, raising hope that treatments have improved. However, patients are also now younger, with fewer comorbidities. We explored whether hospital mortality was associated with changing demographics at a 3-hospital academic health system in New York. We examined in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice from March through August 2020, adjusted for demographic and clinical factors, including comorbidities, admission vital signs, and laboratory results. Among 5,121 hospitalizations, adjusted mortality dropped from 25.6% (95% CI, 23.2-28.1) in March to 7.6% (95% CI, 2.5-17.8) in August. The standardized mortality ratio dropped from 1.26 (95% CI, 1.15-1.39) in March to 0.38 (95% CI, 0.12-0.88) in August, at which time the average probability of death (average marginal effect) was 18.2 percentage points lower than in March. Data from one health system suggest that mortality from COVID-19 is decreasing even after accounting for patient characteristics.

The impact of COVID-19 monoclonal antibodies on clinical outcomes: A retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Despite progress in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including the development of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), more clinical data to support the use of mAbs in outpatients with COVID-19 is needed. This study is designed to determine the impact of bamlanivimab, bamlanivimab/etesevimab, or casirivimab/imdevimab on clinical outcomes within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a single academic medical center with 3 campuses in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Long Island, NY. Patients 12 years of age or older who tested positive for COVID-19 or were treated with a COVID-19-specific therapy, including COVID-19 mAb therapies, at the study site between November 24, 2020, and May 15, 2021, were included. The primary outcomes included rates of emergency department (ED) visit, inpatient admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or death within 30 days from the date of COVID-19 diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 1,344 mAb-treated patients were propensity matched to 1,344 patients with COVID-19 patients who were not treated with mAb therapy. Within 30 days of diagnosis, among the patients who received mAb therapy, 101 (7.5%) presented to the ED and 79 (5.9%) were admitted. Among the patients who did not receive mAb therapy, 165 (12.3%) presented to the ED and 156 (11.6%) were admitted (relative risk [RR], 0.61 [95% CI, 0.50-0.75] and 0.51 [95% CI, 0.40-0.64], respectively). Four mAb patients (0.3%) and 2.64 control patients (0.2%) were admitted to the ICU (RR, 01.51; 95% CI, 0.45-5.09). Six mAb-treated patients (0.4%) and 3.37 controls (0.3%) died and/or were admitted to hospice (RR, 1.61; 95% CI, 0.54-4.83). mAb therapy in ambulatory patients with COVID-19 decreases the risk of ED presentation and hospital admission within 30 days of diagnosis.

Interferon pathway lupus risk alleles modulate risk of death from acute COVID-19.

Type I interferon (IFN) is critical in our defense against viral infections. Increased type I IFN pathway activation is a genetic risk factor for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and a number of common risk alleles contribute to the high IFN trait. We hypothesized that these common gain-of-function IFN pathway alleles may be associated with protection from mortality in acute COVID-19. We studied patients admitted with acute COVID-19 (756 European-American and 398 African-American ancestry). Ancestral backgrounds were analyzed separately, and mortality after acute COVID-19 was the primary outcome. In European-American ancestry, we found that a haplotype of interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) and alleles of protein kinase cGMP-dependent 1 (PRKG1) were associated with mortality from COVID-19. Interestingly, these were much stronger risk factors in younger patients (OR = 29.2 for PRKG1 in ages 45-54). Variants in the IRF7 and IRF8 genes were associated with mortality from COVID-19 in African-American subjects, and these genetic effects were more pronounced in older subjects. Combining genetic information with blood biomarker data such as C-reactive protein, troponin, and D-dimer resulted in significantly improved predictive capacity, and in both ancestral backgrounds the risk genotypes were most relevant in those with positive biomarkers (OR for death between 14 and 111 in high risk genetic/biomarker groups). This study confirms the critical role of the IFN pathway in defense against COVID-19 and viral infections, and supports the idea that some common SLE risk alleles exert protective effects in antiviral immunity.

Outcomes among Hospitalized Chronic Kidney Disease Patients with COVID-19.

Background: Patients with CKD ha ve impaired immunity, increased risk of infection-related mortality, and worsened COVID-19 outcomes. However, data comparing nondialysis CKD and ESKD are sparse. Methods: Patients with COVID-19 admitted to three hospitals in the New York area, between March 2 and August 27, 2020, were retrospectively studied using electronic health records. Patients were classified as those without CKD, those with nondialysis CKD, and those with ESKD, with outcomes including hospital mortality, ICU admission, and mortality rates. Results: Of 3905 patients, 588 (15%) had nondialysis CKD and 128 (3%) had ESKD. The nondialysis CKD and ESKD groups had a greater prevalence of comorbidities and higher admission D-dimer levels, whereas patients with ESKD had lower C-reactive protein levels at admission. ICU admission rates were similar across all three groups (23%-25%). The overall, unadjusted hospital mortality was 25%, and the mortality was 24% for those without CKD, 34% for those with nondialysis CKD, and 27% for those with ESKD. Among patients in the ICU, mortality was 56%, 64%, and 56%, respectively. Although patients with nondialysis CKD had higher odds of overall mortality versus those without CKD in univariate analysis (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.31 to 1.91), this was no longer significant in fully adjusted models (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.40). Also, ESKD status did not associate with a higher risk of mortality compared with non-CKD in adjusted analyses, but did have reduced mortality when compared with nondialysis CKD (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.95). Mortality rates declined precipitously after the first 2 months of the pandemic, from 26% to 14%, which was reflected in all three subgroups. Conclusions: In a diverse cohort of patients with COVID-19, we observed higher crude mortality rates for patients with nondialysis CKD and, to a lesser extent, ESKD, which were not significant after risk adjustment. Moreover, patients with ESKD appear to have better outcom es than those with nondialysis CKD.

Prior bariatric surgery in COVID-19-positive patients may be protective.

BACKGROUND: Patients infected with novel COVID-19 virus have a spectrum of illnesses ranging from asymptomatic to death. Data have shown that age, sex, and obesity are strongly correlated with poor outcomes in COVID-19-positive patients. Bariatric surgery is the only treatment that provides significant, sustained weight loss in the severely obese. OBJECTIVES: Examine if prior bariatric surgery correlates with increased risk of hospitalization and outcome severity after COVID-19 infection. SETTING: University hospital METHODS: A cross-sectional retrospective analysis of a COVID-19 database from a single, New York City-based, academic institution was conducted. A cohort of COVID-19-positive patients with a history of bariatric surgery (n = 124) were matched in a 1:4 ratio to a control cohort of COVID-19-positive patients who were eligible for bariatric surgery (BMI ≥40 kg/m2 or BMI >35 kg/m2 with a co-morbidity at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis) (n = 496). A comparison of outcomes, including mechanical ventilation requirements and deceased at discharge, was done between cohorts using χ2 test or Fisher's exact test. Additionally, overall length of stay and duration of time in intensive care unit (ICU) were compared using Wilcoxon rank sum test. Conditional logistic regression analyses were done to determine both unadjusted (UOR) and adjusted odds ratios (AOR). RESULTS: A total of 620 COVID-19-positive patients were included in this analysis. The categorization of bariatric surgeries included 36% Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB, n = 45), 36% laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB, n = 44), and 28% laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG, n = 35). The body mass index (BMI) for the bariatric group was 36.1 kg/m2 (SD = 8.3), which was significantly lower than the control group, 41.4 kg/m2 (SD = 6.5, P < .0001). There was also less burden of diabetes in the bariatric group (32%) compared with the control group (48%) (P = .0019). Patients with a history of bariatric surgery were less likely to be admitted through the emergency room (UOR = .39, P = .0001), less likely to require a ventilator during the admission (UOR=.42, P = .028), had a shorter length of stay in both the ICU (P = .033) and overall (UOR = .44, P = .0002), and were less likely to be deceased at discharge compared with the control group (OR = .42, P = .028). CONCLUSION: A history of bariatric surgery significantly decreases the risk of emergency room admission, mechanical ventilation, prolonged ICU stay, and death in patients with COVID-19. Even when adjusted for BMI and the co-morbidities associated with obesity, patients with a history of bariatric surgery still have a significant decrease in the risk of emergency room admission.

Decreasing Incidence of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with COVID-19 Critical Illness in New York City.

INTRODUCTION: Reports from the United States suggest that acute kidney injury (AKI) frequently complicates coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but understanding of AKI risks and outcomes is incomplete. In addition, whether kidney outcomes have evolved during the course of the pandemic is unknown. METHODS: We used electronic medical records to identify patients with COVID-19 with and without AKI admitted to 3 New York Hospitals between March 2 and August 25, 2020. Outcomes included AKI overall and according to admission week, AKI stage, the requirement for new renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality, and recovery of kidney function. Logistic regression was used to assess associations of patient characteristics and outcomes. RESULTS: Of 4732 admissions, 1386 (29.3%) patients had AKI. Among those with AKI, 717 (51.7%) had stage 1 disease, 132 (9.5%) had stage 2 disease, 537 (38.7%) had stage 3 disease, and 237 (17.1%) required RRT initiation. In March, 536 of 1648 (32.5%) patients developed AKI compared with 15 of 87 (17.2%) in August (P < 0.001 for monthly trend), whereas RRT initiation was required in 6.9% and 0% of admissions in March and August, respectively. Mortality was higher with than without AKI (51.6% vs. 8.6%) and was 71.9% in individuals requiring RRT. However, most patients with AKI who survived hospitalization (77%) recovered to within 0.3 mg/dl of baseline creatinine. Among those surviving to discharge, 62% discontinued RRT. CONCLUSIONS: AKI impacts a high proportion of admitted patients with COVID-19 and is associated with high mortality, particularly when RRT is required. AKI incidence appears to be decreasing over time and kidney function frequently recovers in those who survive.

Trends in Risk-Adjusted 28-Day Mortality Rates for Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 in England.

Early reports showed high mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Mortality rates have recently been lower; however, patients are also now younger, with fewer comorbidities. We explored 28-day mortality for patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in England over a 5-month period, adjusting for a range of potentially mitigating variables, including sociodemographics and comorbidities. Among 102,610 hospitalizations, crude mortality decreased from 33.4% (95% CI, 32.9-34.0) in March 2020 to 15.5% (95% CI, 14.1-17.0) in July. Adjusted mortality decreased from 33.4% (95% CI, 32.8-34.1) in March to 17.4% (95% CI, 11.3-26.9) in July. The relative risk of mortality decreased from a reference of 1 in March to 0.52 (95% CI, 0.34-0.80) in July. This demonstrates that the reduction in mortality is not solely due to changes in the demographics of those with COVID-19.

Assessment of Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Hospitalization and Mortality in Patients With COVID-19 in New York City.

Importance: Black and Hispanic populations have higher rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization and mortality than White populations but lower in-hospital case-fatality rates. The extent to which neighborhood characteristics and comorbidity explain these disparities is unclear. Outcomes in Asian American populations have not been explored. Objective: To compare COVID-19 outcomes based on race and ethnicity and assess the association of any disparities with comorbidity and neighborhood characteristics. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted within the New York University Langone Health system, which includes over 260 outpatient practices and 4 acute care hospitals. All patients within the system's integrated health record who were tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 between March 1, 2020, and April 8, 2020, were identified and followed up through May 13, 2020. Data were analyzed in June 2020. Among 11 547 patients tested, outcomes were compared by race and ethnicity and examined against differences by age, sex, body mass index, comorbidity, insurance type, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Exposures: Race and ethnicity categorized using self-reported electronic health record data (ie, non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial/other patients). Main Outcomes and Measures: The likelihood of receiving a positive test, hospitalization, and critical illness (defined as a composite of care in the intensive care unit, use of mechanical ventilation, discharge to hospice, or death). Results: Among 9722 patients (mean [SD] age, 50.7 [17.5] years; 58.8% women), 4843 (49.8%) were positive for COVID-19; 2623 (54.2%) of those were admitted for hospitalization (1047 [39.9%] White, 375 [14.3%] Black, 715 [27.3%] Hispanic, 180 [6.9%] Asian, 207 [7.9%] multiracial/other). In fully adjusted models, Black patients (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.6) and Hispanic patients (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7) were more likely than White patients to test positive. Among those who tested positive, odds of hospitalization were similar among White, Hispanic, and Black patients, but higher among Asian (OR, 1.6, 95% CI, 1.1-2.3) and multiracial patients (OR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9) compared with White patients. Among those hospitalized, Black patients were less likely than White patients to have severe illness (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.4-0.8) and to die or be discharged to hospice (hazard ratio, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients in a large health system in New York City, Black and Hispanic patients were more likely, and Asian patients less likely, than White patients to test positive; once hospitalized, Black patients were less likely than White patients to have critical illness or die after adjustment for comorbidity and neighborhood characteristics. This supports the assertion that existing structural determinants pervasive in Black and Hispanic communities may explain the disproportionately higher out-of-hospital deaths due to COVID-19 infections in these populations.

Factors associated with hospital admission and critical illness among 5279 people with coronavirus disease 2019 in New York City: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe outcomes of people admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in the United States, and the clinical and laboratory characteristics associated with severity of illness. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Single academic medical center in New York City and Long Island. PARTICIPANTS: 5279 patients with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection between 1 March 2020 and 8 April 2020. The final date of follow up was 5 May 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Outcomes were admission to hospital, critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, discharge to hospice care, or death), and discharge to hospice care or death. Predictors included patient characteristics, medical history, vital signs, and laboratory results. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes, and competing risk survival analysis for mortality. RESULTS: Of 11 544 people tested for SARS-Cov-2, 5566 (48.2%) were positive. After exclusions, 5279 were included. 2741 of these 5279 (51.9%) were admitted to hospital, of whom 1904 (69.5%) were discharged alive without hospice care and 665 (24.3%) were discharged to hospice care or died. Of 647 (23.6%) patients requiring mechanical ventilation, 391 (60.4%) died and 170 (26.2%) were extubated or discharged. The strongest risk for hospital admission was associated with age, with an odds ratio of >2 for all age groups older than 44 years and 37.9 (95% confidence interval 26.1 to 56.0) for ages 75 years and older. Other risks were heart failure (4.4, 2.6 to 8.0), male sex (2.8, 2.4 to 3.2), chronic kidney disease (2.6, 1.9 to 3.6), and any increase in body mass index (BMI) (eg, for BMI >40: 2.5, 1.8 to 3.4). The strongest risks for critical illness besides age were associated with heart failure (1.9, 1.4 to 2.5), BMI >40 (1.5, 1.0 to 2.2), and male sex (1.5, 1.3 to 1.8). Admission oxygen saturation of <88% (3.7, 2.8 to 4.8), troponin level >1 (4.8, 2.1 to 10.9), C reactive protein level >200 (5.1, 2.8 to 9.2), and D-dimer level >2500 (3.9, 2.6 to 6.0) were, however, more strongly associated with critical illness than age or comorbidities. Risk of critical illness decreased significantly over the study period. Similar associations were found for mortality alone. CONCLUSIONS: Age and comorbidities were found to be strong predictors of hospital admission and to a lesser extent of critical illness and mortality in people with covid-19; however, impairment of oxygen on admission and markers of inflammation were most strongly associated with critical illness and mortality. Outcomes seem to be improving over time, potentially suggesting improvements in care.